Publication list:

Peer-reviewed publications:

[16] Lou, J., McCoy, D., Caulton D., Brown H., Aerenson T., Nugent J., and Kirby A. (2026)  Parameterized cloud and aerosol processes modulate the spatial distribution of extreme fire weather over North America. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. [Accepted]

[15] Lou, J., Joh, Y., Stuber, D.A., Delworth, T. L., and Wittenberg, A. T. (2026). Global warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation drive seasonally varying increases in extreme fire weather over the southwestern US. Commun Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04188-2

[14] Joh, Y., Yeh, S.-W., Delworth, T. L., Labe, Z. M., Wittenberg, A. T., Cooke, W. F., Lou, J., & Park, Y.-G. (2026). Evolving synchronization of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension in a changing climate. Science Advances, 12(8), eadx6366. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx6366

[13] Lou, J., Joh, Y., & Delworth, T. L. (2025). Identifying common precursors of decadal vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States. J. Climate. 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0296.1

[12] Lou, J., Joh, Y., Delworth, T. L., & Jia, L. (2025). Identifying source of predictability for vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01028-6

[11] Amaya, D. J., Maher, N., Deser, C., Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Newman, M., Dias, J., & Lou, J. (2025). Linking Projected Changes in Seasonal Climate Predictability and ENSO Amplitude. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0648.1

[10] Anderson, W, S. Shukla, J. Verdin, A. Hoell, C. Justice, B. Barker, K. Slinski, N. Lenssen, J. Lou, B. Cook, and A. McNally. (2024). Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure. Nature Communications, 15(1), 7262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8.

[9] Lou, J., M. Newman,  & A. Hoell, 2023: Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s. Npj Clim. Atmospheric Sci. 6, 1–14.

[8] Di Lorenzo E. and coauthors, 2023: Modes and mechanisms of Pacific decadal-scale variability. Annual Review of Marine Science. 15, 249-275. 

[7] Albers, J. R., M. Newman, A. Hoell, M. L. Breeden, Y. Wang, and J. Lou, 2022: The February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak in the United States: a Subseasonal Forecast of Opportunity. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. E2887–E2904

[6] Lou, J., T. J. O’Kane, and N. J. Holbrook, 2021: Linking the atmospheric Pacific-South American mode with oceanic variability and predictability. Comm. Earth Environ., 2.

[5] Lou, J., T. J. O’Kane and N. J. Holbrook, 2021: A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Climate Variability: Optimal Structure and Stochastic Forcing. J. Climate, 34, 143-155.

[4] Lou, J., T. J. O’Kane and N. J. Holbrook, 2020: A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability. J. Climate. 33, 4537-4554. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0548.1

[3] Lou, J., N. J. Holbrook, and T. J. O’Kane, 2019: South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability. J. Climate, 32, 6051-6069.

[2] Ying, K., C. S. Frederiksen, X. Zheng, J. Lou, and T. Zhao, 2018: Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 last millennium simulation. Clim. Dyn. 51, 2989-3008. 

[1] Lou, J., X. Zheng, C. S. Frederiksen, H. Liu, S. Grainger, and K. Ying, 2016: Simulated decadal modes of the NH atmospheric circulation arising from intra-decadal variability, external forcing and slow-decadal climate processes. Climate Dyn., 48, 2635–2652.

In preparation:

2. Lou, J., Newman, M., Hoell, A., & Wittenberg, A. L., ENSO forecast skill in a changing climate.

3. Lou, J., Wittenberg, A.L., Joh, Y., & Wu, X., Is ENSO becoming more asymmetric under a changing climate?